Miguel Ángel TempranoEconomics, geopolitics and investment
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Everything that has moved the markets this week, in a five-minute read

Weekly market intelligence report. Published every Monday: what’s happened, what’s behind it and what to watch out for in the coming days, with the global risk index included.

4 reports published
Monday – publication day
8 proprietary indicators
5-minute read

This week's report

Earlier reports
31 ago–6 sep 2026 · week 36

Iran fires on a U.S. vessel near Hormuz and declares a 'prohibited zone': Brent rises 7% and global debt posts its worst week of the year

The team's analysis, scenarios, a geopolitical risk map, weekly closing data and capital flows. The full report as a PDF.

The eight gauges behind it

The index is not an opinion: it combines eight in-house indicators, each with its own weight. These are the eight, and what each one measures.

The KGRI is an index developed entirely by Iciar Temprano and Miguel Ángel Temprano. This composite index condenses into a single measure the level of global risk across the economic, financial and geopolitical environment. It does so by integrating the main dimensions of Visual Sigma™ in order to identify changes in the level of risk and, above all, possible shifts of regime.

18%
VSLI

Liquidity

Short-term funding stress and bank reserves.

10%
VSMPI

Monetary policy

Rates, central bank balance sheets and their room for manoeuvre.

14%
VSEAI

Economic activity

Manufacturing, services, consumption and employment.

6%
VSIPI

Inflationary pressure

Expectations, energy and pass-through to prices.

8%
VSCCI

Credit conditions

Spreads, access to funding and corporate stress.

12%
VSFSI

Financial stability

Solvency of the system and accumulated vulnerabilities.

14%
VSGRI

Geopolitical risk

Conflicts, supply routes and sanctions.

18%
VSMRI

Market reaction

How prices respond. The only one read the other way round.

Earlier reports

31 ago–6 sep 2026week 36

Iran fires on a U.S. vessel near Hormuz and declares a 'prohibited zone': Brent rises 7% and global debt posts its worst week of the year

Global risk index · KGRI 53,1 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 24-30, 2026week 35

Hormuz remains unsigned ahead of the August 17 deadline: Brent rises 5% and markets hold in an uneasy calm

Global risk index · KGRI 51,5 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 17-23, 2026week 34

Hormuz remains without a deal and under threat of total closure: Brent jumps 6.6% to $94, Wall Street pulls back from highs and gold extends its rally

Global risk index · KGRI 53,4 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 10-16, 2026week 33

Hormuz remains unsigned ahead of the August 17 deadline: Brent rises 5% and markets hold in an uneasy calm

Global risk index · KGRI 51,1 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 3-9, 2026week 32

The market prices in peace in Hormuz before it arrives: Wall Street hits a record and Brent falls 7% while the strait stays nearly shut

Global risk index · KGRI 52,4 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Jul 20-26, 2026week 30

The Houthis close the second chokepoint: Brent touches $100 and the market stops pricing cuts

Global risk index · KGRI 57,9 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish

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