Miguel Ángel TempranoEconomics, geopolitics and investment
ES·EN
Home · The World in 5 Minutes

Everything that has moved the markets this week, in a five-minute read

Weekly market intelligence report. Published every Monday: what’s happened, what’s behind it and what to watch out for in the coming days, with the global risk index included.

15reports published
Mondaypublication day
8proprietary indicators
1global risk index
5minute read

This week's report

Earlier reports
19-25 oct 2026 · week 43

Irán denuncia el mayor ataque a petroleros de la guerra -siete buques minados o alcanzados en Ormuz-; Trump lo llama montaje para subir el crudo antes de las midterms, y el Brent cierra en 116,72 dólares, máximo desde el inicio del conflicto

The team's analysis, scenarios, a geopolitical risk map, weekly closing data and capital flows. The full report as a PDF.

The eight gauges behind it

The index is not an opinion: it combines eight in-house indicators, each with its own weight. These are the eight, and what each one measures.

The KGRI is a composite index that condenses into a single measure the level of global risk across the economic, financial and geopolitical environment. It does so by integrating the main dimensions of Visual Sigma™ in order to identify changes in the level of risk and, above all, possible shifts of regime.

The weekly report The World in 5 Minutes is the result of a collaboration between two economists, Iciar Temprano and Miguel Ángel Temprano, but the essence of the report, Visual Sigma and the KGRI, is the outcome of research carried out exclusively by Iciar Temprano, the mother of the report's critical core.

The methodological manual, a detailed account of the academic methodology followed, can be read on this same page.

18%
VSLI

Liquidity

Short-term funding stress and bank reserves.

10%
VSMPI

Monetary policy

Rates, central bank balance sheets and their room for manoeuvre.

14%
VSEAI

Economic activity

Manufacturing, services, consumption and employment.

6%
VSIPI

Inflationary pressure

Expectations, energy and pass-through to prices.

8%
VSCCI

Credit conditions

Spreads, access to funding and corporate stress.

12%
VSFSI

Financial stability

Solvency of the system and accumulated vulnerabilities.

14%
VSGRI

Geopolitical risk

Conflicts, supply routes and sanctions.

18%
VSMRI

Market reaction

How prices respond. The only one read the other way round.

The Visual Sigma™ methodological manual

How the eight indicators are built: which variables go into each one, how they are normalised and why each carries the weight it does. It is the reference document of the model, the reasoning behind every figure in the report.

It can be read here, page by page. The manual is in Spanish.

Earlier reports

19-25 oct 2026week 43

Irán denuncia el mayor ataque a petroleros de la guerra -siete buques minados o alcanzados en Ormuz-; Trump lo llama montaje para subir el crudo antes de las midterms, y el Brent cierra en 116,72 dólares, máximo desde el inicio del conflicto

Global risk index · KGRI 61,6 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
12-18 oct 2026week 42

El estrecho de Ormuz se cierra de facto tras el hundimiento de un petrolero y Trump amenaza con obliterar la infraestructura energética iraní; el Brent supera los 110 dólares por primera vez desde mayo

Global risk index · KGRI 58,2 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
5-11 oct 2026week 41

La Casa Blanca pide al Pentágono opciones de ataque contra Irán y dispara el Brent casi un 4%, pero Trump descarta golpear antes de las elecciones; Arabia Saudí lanza su ofensiva en el mar Rojo y Rusia vive su semana más sangrienta en Ucrania

Global risk index · KGRI 55,7 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
28 sep - 4 oct 2026week 40

El gilt británico a treinta años supera el 6% por primera vez desde 1998 a tres semanas del presupuesto de Healey, mientras el Brent cae otro 3% y Arabia Saudí prepara una ofensiva terrestre contra los hutíes en el mar Rojo

Global risk index · KGRI 56,1 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
21-27 sep 2026week 39

Irán ofrece a EE.UU. reabrir el estrecho de Ormuz en siete días y el Brent se hunde más de un 11%; la Fed sube tipos por primera vez desde 2023 y los bonos soberanos globales marcan nuevos récords

Global risk index · KGRI 52,0 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
14-20 sep 2026week 38

EE.UU. destruye cinco petroleros iraníes en el golfo de Omán y la mediación de Omán se rompe: el Brent sube más de un 8% y los gilts británicos rozan el 6%, máximo desde 1998

Global risk index · KGRI 52,5 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
7-13 sep 2026week 37

EE.UU. destruye cinco petroleros iraníes en el golfo de Omán y la mediación de Omán se rompe: el Brent sube más de un 8% y los gilts británicos rozan el 6%, máximo desde 1998

Global risk index · KGRI 53,7 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
31 ago–6 sep 2026week 36

Iran fires on a U.S. vessel near Hormuz and declares a 'prohibited zone': Brent rises 7% and global debt posts its worst week of the year

Global risk index · KGRI 53,1 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 24-30, 2026week 35

Hormuz remains unsigned ahead of the August 17 deadline: Brent rises 5% and markets hold in an uneasy calm

Global risk index · KGRI 51,5 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
Aug 17-23, 2026week 34

Hormuz remains without a deal and under threat of total closure: Brent jumps 6.6% to $94, Wall Street pulls back from highs and gold extends its rally

Global risk index · KGRI 53,4 out of 100 ViewDownloadView (EN)Also in Spanish
1 2

Get The World in 5 Minutes by email

You will be told whenever something new is published: a column, an analysis or a research note. No advertising, and your details are never passed on.

What would you like to receive?
Language

One click to unsubscribe in every email.