A column on monetary policy, geopolitics, industrial supply chains and the ever-widening gap between the real economy and asset prices.
I write this column for one simple reason: almost everything published about the markets explains what has happened, and almost nothing explains why it had to happen.
I have spent forty years on both sides of the table. First running industrial companies in sixteen countries, then managing funds. It is that dual perspective that I aim to bring here: not that of the commentator reading the morning’s headlines, but that of someone who has had to sign off on a decision and take responsibility for it.
There are no buy or sell recommendations. There are hypotheses, there is primary data, and there are scenarios. When I get it wrong, the previous column remains published with its original date. That is the only commitment I can offer, and I believe it is the only one worth anything.
Miguel Ángel Temprano
The first instalment and the underlying thesis for everything that follows: the Sino-American rivalry for financial hegemony is not an isolated episode, it is the overarching framework.
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What happens when production ceases to be concentrated in a single country and spreads across the entire Asian arc? The industrial landscape of the future.
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The most recent one, and a good example of the method: looking at actual shipping traffic rather than diplomatic statements.
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Investing involves many things, but blind trust is certainly not one of them.
From ‘The lack of critical thinking among investors’, November 2022
Eight years, 51 columns
Monetary policy is devised far removed from indebted households, yet it is their current accounts that bear the brunt. This is the thread running through all the columns on inflation and interest rates.
There is talk of semiconductor factories, whilst the real bottleneck lies in refining, in shipping routes and in materials that almost no one writes about.
From Theranos to the next scandal, the pattern repeats itself: institutional capital jumps in without asking questions, and oversight only comes when there is nothing left to oversee.
China, India, the alliance with Russia and the Asian arc are not isolated headlines: they are pieces in a power-sharing arrangement that will take decades to unfold and is already shaping prices today.
52 columns
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