What if it’s true that Trump is going to lose the election?

The polls keep insisting that Trump will lose the election this coming November, and they say this because he doesn’t need to lose much of what he surprisingly won in 2016 to lose the election. If he loses in just a few key states that he won by the narrowest of margins, he will lose. So, was Trump a better candidate than he has been as president? Or were Americans simply not ready for a woman to be the most powerful person on the planet? What the polls didn’t say then but are now suggesting is that it is highly likely the Republicans will also lose the Senate, and perhaps the key lies in who Biden chooses as his vice-president.

1 July 2020. Reading time: 5 minutes 20 seconds

It feels like it was a century ago, but it was only three and a half years ago that Trump became the most powerful man on the planet. On a freezing January morning, he was sworn in as President of the United States on the steps of the Capitol, despite having achieved the worst election results – in terms of the popular vote – in the entire history of the US. And they were even worse than those achieved in George W. Bush’s first victory – the one that was only decided after three recounts in the state of Florida. On that occasion, Bush lost the popular vote to Gore by a narrow margin. Trump lost by more than 2.5 million votes.

Trump won in the most unexpected way possible. He lost by an overwhelming majority in the national popular vote, but won in three key states, albeit by a margin of less than 1 per cent. By fewer than 100,000 votes – which, in terms of the US population, is a derisory figure. Three states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – which had consistently voted Democrat in the four previous presidential elections.

In both elections, Obama – a politician with no significant previous experience – beat the Republican candidate in these states by an average margin of more than eight points. And this was despite the fact that, in at least the first of these elections, the Republican candidate had everything going for him to be a winning candidate. John McCain was a war hero who had been held prisoner by the Vietnamese for a long time, a distinguished senator and a moderate politician.

“Obama won in three predominantly white states despite being a politician with no significant previous experience and, at least in the first of these contests, facing a white candidate – a war hero, a distinguished senator and a moderate politician – such as McCain.”

It is the case that in these three states in the north-east of the United States, the white population accounts for approximately 7 per cent more than in the rest of the states of the Union. We can therefore conclude that, despite the racial issue which is, quite rightly, often discussed, the white population voted overwhelmingly for Obama in the two elections in which he stood.

And all this just to explain that the typical voter in these three states is a Democrat.

So why did Trump win in these three states? Well, the explanation lies in the dislike – not to say hatred – that Hillary Clinton aroused. Hillary lost by a large majority in every county in these three states, except for their major cities, such as Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee.

This leads us to wonder whether the problem is that American voters are not yet ready for a woman to take her place in the Oval Office.

A short while ago, one of the world’s leading polling organisations, Gallup, carried out a major survey into the acceptance or rejection a candidate would elicit based on their basic characteristics. The results showed that a woman, simply by virtue of being a woman, would not provoke more rejection than acceptance. The same was true if the candidate was a person of colour, homosexual, Catholic or even a Muslim. There was only one characteristic that did provoke more rejection than acceptance, and that was if any of these candidates were a socialist. The survey thus revealed that neither gender, nor race, nor religion, nor even sexual orientation were grounds for rejection when electing a president; only their political affiliation was.

“A recent large-scale political survey by Gallup showed that the American people today do not discriminate on the basis of race, gender, religion or sexual orientation. The only type of candidate who, from the outset, faces more rejection than acceptance is one who identifies as a socialist.”

So, we need look no further than the fact that people didn’t like Hillary to explain why she became the first Democratic candidate to lose in these three states in a very long time.

Even in these ‘Democratic’ states, a society as conservative as the American one – and even more so in rural counties – preferred to vote for a candidate embroiled in all manner of sex scandals rather than for Hillary Clinton. But if we look a little deeper, the ones “responsible” for Trump’s victory were women themselves, who did not vote for Trump but stayed at home and did not turn out to vote. Subsequent studies recorded an average drop in the female vote in these three states of 1.44 per cent. That was enough for Trump to win.(1)

The morning after the election that Trump won, I received several calls from colleagues who were trying to explain to me what the incoming administration’s policy would be, and in the end, in every call, I replied with the same thing: “I’m sorry, but I think you’re wrong; this man is in that position by a quirk of history, as the Democrats have chosen the worst possible candidate. This man knows nothing, nor does he have any strategy whatsoever.”

“Trump occupies the Oval Office not because of his experience or strategic acumen, but by a quirk of history”

• A year ago, we made a video in which we predicted that Trump would lose the election and that Biden would be the Democratic candidate. Readers can watch and listen to both this video and others on these topics on our YouTube channel, orfeocapital, as well as listen to them on our podcast channel.

• Anyone wishing to follow them will find an update every Monday in the ‘Current Affairs/News’ section of our website.

• A year ago, we made a video in which we predicted that Trump would lose the election and that Biden would be the Democratic candidate. Readers can watch and listen to both this video and others on these topics on our YouTube channel, orfeocapital, as well as listen to them on our podcast channel.

• Anyone wishing to follow them will find an update every Monday in the ‘Current Affairs/News’ section of our website.

For my part, I stopped counting when the number of aides who had been sacked or had resigned reached 23 in just 20 months of his administration. That said, one of the most sinister figures in the global economy remains by his side. A figure with no defined administrative role who acts as a presidential adviser with full powers, and the voice that whispers the wildest conspiracies into Trump’s ear: Peter Navarro.

Contrary to what we usually hear in the press, since the mid-term elections the polls have not predicted that Trump will win the next election; quite the opposite, in fact, although it is true that until just 60 days ago they were within the margin of error.(2)

For Trump to lose the election on 3 November, he need only lose in Pennsylvania and Michigan – two of the states where he won by less than 1 per cent – even if he were to win again in all the other states where he triumphed. At the time of writing, Trump is projected to lose not only in these two states, but also in Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona – states in which he won in the previous election. And the polls suggest that in many of these, the projected result lies outside the margin of error.

Erratic decisions and inflammatory statements on such sensitive issues as the pandemic, racism and police brutality may not have led to a loss of votes, as he has a very stable base of loyal supporters, but they have prompted many voters who had not intended to vote to do so – albeit against him.

The American electoral system is complex and difficult to understand, given that the electoral votes allocated to a particular state are not distributed proportionally amongst the candidates based on the votes they receive, but are instead awarded in their entirety to the candidate who wins the state.

Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Biden, remains holed up at his home in Delaware, watching as his opponent’s tower collapses.

And if Biden wins, what should we expect? Well, it depends on the area. Biden is a veteran senator,

with experience and knowledge of Europe. But let no one be under any illusion that he is a left-winger, because he is the very antithesis of that, and his actions speak for themselves.

He will stand up to the Chinese and the Russians, but most likely in a far more subtle and diplomatic manner than Trump. And he will certainly recognise the Europeans as allies and friends – a status that has been evident for decades – although he will demand many of the same things from them that Trump has been demanding.

But whilst I had long taken it for granted that Biden would be the next president, the last two months have held a surprise for me. Until then, I had assumed that Congress would remain in Democratic hands and the Senate in Republican hands, but the latest polls are beginning to turn the tables in the upper house.

As the reader will be aware, senators are elected for six-year terms, but one-third of the Senate is renewed every two years. With the renewal this coming November, it is likely – or at least that is what the polls suggest – that the Democrats will lose the seat in Alabama, but regain those in Maine, Colorado and Arizona. Everything would therefore depend on the result in North Carolina. In all cases, the polls are outside the margin of error; the uncertainty lies in North Carolina, where the polls, whilst predicting a Democratic victory, are still within the margin of error.

If, as the polls currently suggest, the Democrats were to win North Carolina, there would be a tie with 50 seats for each party, and in the event of a tie, the Speaker of the House would cast the deciding vote, as this role falls to the Vice-President of the nation. Thus, if Biden wins and the Senate poll predictions prove accurate, the Democrats would control both the executive and legislative branches, enabling them to implement 100 per cent of their programme.

It is highly likely that part of the next parliamentary term will be decided in North Carolina. If the Democrats win the Senate seat, the parliamentary term will take one course; if not, it will take another.

And what will decide the outcome in North Carolina? Well, essentially, it depends on the mobilisation of the female vote and, above all, the African-American vote. And do you know how I think Biden is going to tackle this issue? By choosing a woman of colour as his running mate. And her name is Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris is a Californian, a Democratic senator of Jamaican and Native American descent, who previously served as state attorney general. She was a candidate in this election but withdrew to support Biden.

So, we’ll see the solution very soon, because the final sprint has already begun.