Thermopylae in Caracas: betrayal, effective control and the myth of illegality

The recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro has sparked a flood of hasty opinions, many of which lack legal, historical or strategic rigour. This article argues that the intervention which has brought his term of office to an end does not breach international law, as his power was usurped, sustained through repression and devoid of democratic legitimacy. In the face of simplistic interpretations — ranging from claims of illegality to arguments about the plundering of resources — this article presents an interpretation based on the doctrine of effective control, democratic legitimacy, the logic of military intelligence and geopolitical realism. Venezuela is not a case of intervention for oil, but rather an episode of strategic stabilisation against a backdrop of criminal infiltration, institutional collapse and competition between powers. What lies ahead will not be easy, but the debate calls for fewer slogans and a greater understanding of how power, the law and history actually work.

7 January 2026 Reading time: 5 minutes 55 seconds

Barely five days have passed since Nicolas Maduro was captured by US elite troops. I’ve heard and read all sorts of things. And the more I do so, the more I realise that people are forming opinions not only without knowing the facts or taking any interest in finding out, but also based on preconceived notions. Starting with our own ministers.

Let’s start at the beginning. Has international law been breached? Clearly not. And I shall explain why. Although Article 2.4 of the United Nations Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, when the ousted president has unlawfully usurped the power conferred by the ballot box, the doctrine of effective control (that exercised by the usurper) is subject to democratic legitimacy.

If, furthermore, the legitimately elected government requests foreign assistance, the legitimacy of the intervention is strengthened. This legitimacy is further enhanced when the usurper subjugates his own people through torture. Such crimes are classified by the International Criminal Court as ‘crimes against humanity’.

All of this is set out in numerous United Nations resolutions. So I don’t understand the debate.

“The doctrine of effective control is subject to democratic legitimacy as defined by the United Nations”

We could discuss the need for prior authorisation from the United Nations Security Council, but to invoke a Council in which the permanent members hold the right of veto is, to say the least, a cynical stance.

Let’s move on to something else that I don’t see as even a question. Have the Americans received domestic aid? Of course they have.

“The Delta Force moved around Caracas as if they owned the place. Without inside support, that’s not possible – not even for them, let alone anyone else.”

This is taught at all military academies. And that is what the intelligence services are for. The intelligence services are not just there to find things out, but to buy loyalty. If your army is going to intervene, the intelligence services’ primary mission is to ensure that friendly casualties are kept to a minimum. And that is not achieved with weapons, but through all manner of stratagems, such as promises, money, …

But we see it every day in films!

Herodotus of Halicarnassus, in Book VII, had already recounted how the Spartans were defeated by the Persians under Xerxes I at the Battle of Thermopylae, thanks to the betrayal of one of their own. And this was already being written about in the 5th century BC.

Just how deep-seated has the betrayal been? Well, I haven’t the foggiest. But it’s also a well-known fact that rats are the first to jump ship, which means that the traitors – whether few or many – will be leaving in droves. And if not, time will tell.

Let’s move on. It is said to be a disappointment that the opposition, which legitimately won the elections, has not been placed at the helm of the country. This would have been a mistake on a par with the one made in Iraq.

“When there are more bosses than rank-and-file soldiers in an army, you need women weighing 120 kilos as a defence force”

All dictatorships are regimes. And the more oppressive they are, the larger and more powerful these regimes become in terms of their infiltration into society. Hitler did not turn on the gas valves in the concentration camp gas chambers. Just as Maduro did not personally torture the abductees at the Helicoide. Both had henchmen whom it was not, and is not, even necessary to instruct. Evil is something they bring with them from home,

A quick fact: the US army, to give an example of operational efficiency, has one general for every 1,500 soldiers or so. The Venezuelan army has one for every 60. That’s not an army; it’s a gang of thieves. With this structure, the so-called ‘army’ is in fact an informal, paramilitary and armed police force. Put like that, it almost sounds acceptable. Put another way – which perhaps comes closer to the truth – it is a gang of thugs, crooks and murderers, armed and devoid of any scruples or discipline.

Does anyone really believe it’s possible to get rid of all this overnight, just like that? Anyone who thinks so is a sceptic. The only way to do it is to stir up such a level of conflict amongst them that they kill each other. At this stage, with the regime feeding a huge number of lackeys, the only viable option is for it to implode. In other words, let them kill each other, and at least leave the house half-cleaned.

If you want to do it differently, it is estimated that 300,000 American soldiers would be needed to act as police in Venezuela. If I were American, I would flatly refuse to allow my troops to act as police in Venezuela.

And now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. It’s said that it’s all about getting their hands on their natural resources. I don’t think I need to explain how little real and intellectual regard I have for Trump. That’s why I pay no attention whatsoever to the nonsense he spouts.

I think most people would agree that the mastermind behind all this is Marco Rubio. Well, let’s hear what he has to say.

To begin with, Marco Rubio – whether you like him or not – is in a completely different league to Trump intellectually. But let’s not focus on what he said yesterday or the day before, but rather on what he’s been saying for the last five years. And he’s been very consistent.

And he asks: why does the US want Venezuelan oil? These days, the US is self-sufficient.

Well, in that case, it must be so that their companies can get rich. I don’t know if American companies would think the same.

We live in a world that is moving towards decarbonisation. The investment required in Venezuela to restore its extraction and transport systems is just as costly as building them from scratch.

Venezuelan oil has a very high break-even price. This is particularly true of the abundant, extra-heavy oil from the Orinoco Basin. This type of oil accounts for around 75 per cent of the country’s total reserves. Its break-even price is close to 65 USD per barrel. At the time of writing, the WTI benchmark is trading at around US$58 per barrel. At least for now, it does not seem to be a good deal.

So why are they interested in oil? Well, they’re not so much interested in having it as they are in ensuring that others don’t have it.

“It’s not that South America is the US’s back garden; it’s that it’s the garden its enemies use to destabilise the country”

Let’s analyse the situation. The arrival of the Americans is sidelining Iran, Russia and China. Iran and Russia are producers, whilst China’s sole aim is really just to be repaid, in some way, for the huge sum of money it lent to Venezuela – money it now considers a write-off.

Russia and Iran, by controlling Venezuelan oil, could destabilise the region by supplying it to countries aligned with them, such as Nicaragua and, above all, Cuba.

They are doing more than just setting foot in their enemy’s back garden. But this destabilisation does not come about solely through this channel; it comes through others as well.

Marco Rubio – and I’ve heard him say this in both English and Spanish – says: ‘How could he possibly be against immigration? He is, after all, the son of Cuban exiles who arrived in the US with nothing. His mother started out cleaning houses and hotels.’ What cannot be allowed is for immigration to be illegal and uncontrolled, because that causes the system to break down.

I am not an immigrant, nor am I the child of immigrants, but I have been saying the same thing about my own country for many years. How could I possibly be against someone who says that about their own country?

Well, Venezuela – which is obviously controlled by Iranians and Russians – has introduced a destabilising element into the US as part of a pre-defined strategy: ‘The Aragua Train’.

A mafia cartel devised by Chaves and run by the current despots. A criminal network that has infiltrated the US, taking advantage of lax controls which have allowed the cartels to rule entire neighbourhoods in every major city across the country.

“Immigration is necessary; it is also an act of international solidarity. But it must not become a source of destabilisation for societies”

So, over the next few days we will see whether or not they really have the situation under control. The first sign will be the closure of the Helicoid and the release of the political prisoners. If this happens within the next 15 days, things will get off to a good start. But let no one be under any illusion that this is going to be a bed of roses.

Yesterday I was listening to an exiled Venezuelan rear admiral living in Spain who suggested there might be a second intervention. We’ll see.

Ah! And please don’t let the armchair far-left keep selling you the idea that Cuba is a paradise. It isn’t even for the despots who rule it. They used to say they had the best healthcare in the world, but Fidel had to call in a Spanish doctor when he fell ill. They claimed their bodyguard unit was invincible. Well, the result was 36–0 against the Delta Force. Could it all just be false propaganda?

But this is Venezuela, not Greenland. Let’s not confuse the two – Greenland is a different matter altogether.