The invisible war: how Gulf capital moves technology and geopolitics

Amid the apparent geopolitical chaos in the Persian Gulf, there is a far less visible but decisive factor in understanding what is really at stake. Beyond military or energy conflicts, the Arab Gulf states have become one of the main financial drivers behind the development of artificial intelligence and the rise of the technology markets in the United States. This massive transfer of capital is not only redefining global economic leadership, but also directly affects the financial stability of millions of Americans, whose pension plans depend heavily on the performance of these markets. In this context, the evolution of the conflict is no longer merely a matter of security or energy supply; it has also become a factor with domestic political implications, capable of influencing the economic climate in the run-up to the mid-term elections and, with it, the balance of power in Washington.

21 April 2026 Reading time: 4 minutes 54 seconds

The RAE defines ‘quilombo’, amongst other meanings, as a mess, a commotion, a row or chaos. Although this word is of African origin, it is widely used in neighbouring countries in the Southern Cone of South America, and it aptly describes what is happening in the Persian Gulf.

First of all, let’s draw up a map of the key players and interests in the region. I’ll summarise it, because otherwise it would take 20 pages. There are the main players – the ones who take centre stage and whose mistakes everyone notices: the US and Iran.

As in any play (and it might well be one, were it not for the loss of life and economic damage it is causing), there are supporting actors who, as in any mess, are on one side or the other. On the US side: Israel. On the Iranian side: Russia, North Korea and, above all, China. China is the country the US wants to be the main victim of the fall of the Ayatollahs’ regime. Then there are the characters who come and go on the stage, whispering to the main actors so that, in the midst of the mess that has ensued, they are not forgotten. Here, on the US side, are the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, many of them bitter enemies of the Persians, such as the Saudis. And others who are less hostile, but certainly not friends – and even less so now. These include Oman, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and, it is not known, perhaps even Pakistan. In this part of the cast, Iran is more than just on its own; it has only the Houthi-controlled part of Yemen on its side.

In the midst of it all, and as if forced to endure the spectacle, the rest of the world. For the time being, it is the Indians who are worst affected, but soon it will be every country.

The real battleground is not oil, but the capital that fuels artificial intelligence.

But this article is not intended to tell you what you all already know, but rather to alert you to something you may not be aware of. The Americans cannot leave this issue unresolved. Or at least, in their own interests, they shouldn’t. And not for their own sake, nor for Israel’s, but for the sake of the Arab countries – and now you’ll understand why.

Most people first became aware of AI with the arrival of ChatGPT. This happened in late November 2022 – in other words, less than three and a half years ago. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen by 80 per cent and the Nasdaq (the stock exchange on which all technology companies are listed) by 130 per cent. The Nasdaq is clearly on an exponential trajectory.

The technology boom cannot be sustained by innovation alone; it requires constant funding.

For this price rise – though I’m not sure whether it reflects an increase in value – to have materialised, an inflow of ≈ 15 trillion USD has been required. But on the stock markets, the principle that ‘money attracts money’ holds true to a tee, and if a large amount comes in from just a few sources, it creates a knock-on effect, drawing in many other, much smaller sources.Well, here’s the surprise: do you know how much of that money comes from the sovereign wealth funds of Arab countries? The ones that rarely take centre stage, preferring to whisper in the US’s ear? A whopping ≈2.3 trillion USD. But this figure isn’t the full picture, because it doesn’t include the money that isn’t publicly disclosed and is channelled into debt and private equity funds. Estimates from various reliable sources put that figure at over 5 trillion. We could say, without exaggeration, that the real driving force behind the rise in the value of AI and semiconductor companies has one key player – and now the main one – namely the Persian Gulf states.

You will recall that not long ago, during Trump’s second term, in November 2025, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, pledged to Trump to invest 1 trillion US dollars. In return, Trump explicitly stated, “We’ll be selling F-35s”, one of the Saudi government’s most important aspirations. And where do you think the bulk of that investment would go? Well, into AI. The significance of this investment lies not only in the Saudi money being channelled into technological development, but also in its role as the driving force behind the US stock market.

What happens in the Gulf may ultimately determine the outcome of votes in Washington.

And who is the main group in the US that is affected if the stock market does not rise? Pension funds, which have a very significant Republican voter base. The US government is well aware of all this.

So, can anyone really believe that Trump might withdraw from the Gulf, leaving the Strait under the control of Saudi Arabia’s greatest enemy? Which is not Israel, but Iran – by a long way. In fact, the attack by Hamas, instigated by Iran, was intended to ensure that Israel’s retaliatory strikes – which were taken for granted – would lead to the collapse of the Abraham Accords, and above all to prevent Saudi Arabia from eventually joining them.

Thus, the hornet’s nest into which the US has stumbled offers no easy way out, far from it. The Strait must remain free and secure, not only out of necessity for the world, but also as a requirement of the external driver of its critical economy – and, above all, of its stock market, which supports its pensioners.

Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear weapons programme must be dismantled, because the target of the Iranian bomb may now be not only Israel, but also the Arab Gulf states, which have already been attacked by Iran.

And in the meantime, the chaos has spread to his own administration. Many of us, myself included, were surprised by the apparent calm within the US government. Let’s not forget that during his first term, Trump sacked more than 40 senior officials whom he had previously appointed. Well, that calm has now come to an end. But then again, he’s brought it on himself.

Behind the geopolitics lies something far more sensitive for the US: pensions and the vote.

When you appoint a blogger as deputy director of the FBI and name someone with clear signs of chronic alcoholism as director, well, it seems you’ve brought it on yourself. But if the Secretary of War (as the post is now called) is a journalist with no experience in either defence or politics, who is also paranoid, and who is up against seasoned military figures who have been through a thousand battles of all kinds – both political and actual – well, what can you expect?

If you insist on having the person who reported you charged, and those responsible for doing so – such as the state attorney-general – fail to do so, then you’ve eaten your dessert before your soup.

You appoint someone sensible as the country’s Director of Intelligence (the person who coordinates all the intelligence agencies – the CIA, the NSA, the military, and so on), someone who surrounds herself with people who say sensible things, such as the director of counter-terrorism, and then, when they do say those things, you sack them. What can you expect?

Or you appoint an anti-vaxxer as Secretary of Health. Just a side note. In my view, opposing vaccines puts one’s wisdom on a par with that of someone who claims the earth is flat or that man never set foot on the moon. The level of conspiracy-mongering displayed by these anti-vaxxers can only be described as that of a mentally ill person.

Logic would tell me now that the Americans aren’t going to pull out of the Gulf, even if it turns into another Vietnam. But with Trump around, I no longer dare say anything, especially with the mid-term elections coming up and the polls suggesting he’s certain to lose control of Congress, whilst the Senate would end up at 49-51.