Objetivo Biden: Recuperar un país sumido en una crisis social y económica

In a fewdaystheworldwillfaceone of themost crucial elections of thelast 50 years, althoughonly American citizenshavetheright to decide. Thepolls in a poundingway and fortwoyearsanticipate a Democraticvictory. Biden wouldenterthe White House as theoldestpresident in thecountry’shistory, and would be accompaniedbythefirstwoman as successor in a serious case, Kamala Harris. Itwillfinditselfthemostdivided country sincethe Civil War in the mid-19th century. Youwant to do? Butaboveall, what can he do if he finallyoccupiesthe Oval?

ByMiguelÁngelTemprano

October 22, 2020Reading time: 3,10 min

In lessthan a week, at earlymorning in EuropefromNovember 3 to 4, wewillknowwhoisgoing to rule in thestillfirstworldpower, the USA Thechoice of whosits to rule in the Oval isneverirrelevant, butthis time afterfouryears of the mandate of themosterraticpresident in modernhistory, theresult of theelectioniseven more relevant.

Twoyearsago, and after a profuseanalysis of theresults of themidtermelections in the US, wepredictedthatthe new tenantwould be a Democratif he wasnot a radical. Wewerebettingon Biden, when he hadnotyetofficially run. Watch video

Todaypollssupportourpredictionfromtwoyears ago.

Butif Biden winswhatwill he do? He willfind a country that in 2020 isgoing to fall 4% in GDP, withanunemploymentrate of 9.4% and a fiscal deficit of 16% thatwillgeneratethatbeforeanyadditionalmeasure of thisdeficitrises to 5% in perpetuity, causingpublicdebt to reach 200% by 2025.

And all of theabove in a country plungedintothegreatestdivisionamongitsfellowcitizenssincethe Civil War, back in themiddle of the 19th century.

«Biden isgoing to find a country that in addition to beingimmersed in a recessionisplungedintothegreatestdivision of itsfellowcitizenssincethe Civil War.»

ThepollsnotonlysaythattheDemocratswillconquerthe White House, butthattheywillalsowin a majority in theSenatefromCongress. Now, regardless of howtheygetthemajority, whetherbyhaving more than 50 seatsorthanks to thetiebreaker vote of thepresident of thechamber (whichwouldcorrespond to Kamala Harris in hercapacity as Vice President of thenation )itisimpossibleforthem to getthe 60 seatsnecessary to preventfilibustering in theSenate.

Senatorshave, fromtheverybeginning of theSenate, maintainedtheprerogative of usingoratoricaltrickery to preventcertainlawsfrombeingpassed. In order to limitfilibusteringmanyyearsago, aninternal rule wasissuedthat at therequest of themajority, clause 22 orcloutureclause can be applied, bywhichfilibusteringwould be withouteffect. Butitseemsunlikelythatsitting in the White Housewith a Presidentwho has been a respectfulSenatorfor 32 years, thisclausewill be invoked.

Thus, we can only hope in thisregardfortwothingsforthenextlegislature, thenegotiationbetweentheparties, badlydamagedduringthe Trump administration, and that Biden renouncestheapplication of part of his electoral program. And I thinkit’s a stagewhere Biden isgoing to knowhow to moveverywell.

Itissaidthatthere are twotypes of leaders, thevisionarieswho try to innovate to createwealth and thepragmatistswho try to maximizethesystemusingtheirstrengthfromwithin. Biden iscertainlyone of thelatter.

«Biden is a pragmatic leader whowill try to use theforce of thesystemfromwithin to achievehisgoals»

As a moderate, he isused to negotiation and agreement, and he willhave to dealwith a politicallydivided country, but he willfind in hisranks a radical leftwing, increasinglystrongerwheretheemerging figure of the New York lawmakerMrs. Ocasio-Cortez has more and more weight, and that in a country that, according to the Gallup poll, theonlycandidatethatAmericanswouldnever vote in a majorityforpresidentwould be theonewho, likeshe, callsherself a socialist.

Biden isneitheraneconomistnorhispoliticalcareer has beencharacterizedbydealingmainlywiththeseeconomicissues, rathertheyhavebeenaboutthe judicial system and especiallyaboutforeignpolicy, whichiswhyPresident Obama has alreadysaidthat he hadchosenhim as a partner. electoral ballot. Butthesituation, evenifitisnotwhat he wouldhaveliked, iswhatitis, and he willhave to dealwithit.

Youhavealreadysaidthatyourprioritywill be economicstimuli. Itintends to spend up to anadditional 3% of GDP onpublicspending, althoughitisforeseeablethatthis figure isimpossible to reach a consensus and remainsbetween 1 and 2% of GDP, a figure that can be around $3 Trn.

«Themainfocus of investmentsduringhisadministrationwill be focusedongreeninfrastructures, withtheobjective of neutralizingthecarbonfootprint in 10 years.»

As part of the New Green Deal, itintends to spend 33% of thisincrease in spendingongreeninfrastructures, such as theimprovement of theelectricitygrid, theincrease in electricchargingpointsfor cars and especially 5G. Itaims to achievethe more thanambitiousgoal of carbon neutral generation in ten years.

Aware of theeducationalproblemthatweighsonthe country, itintends to dedicate 21% of thatincrease in spendingontax incentives forstudies to familieswithincomesbelow $125,000. Just as itintends to open itshand to immigration, butnot to all, but to theonethatis more qualified.

Thehealthissueis more than a buck. He wasnotamongthefirst in line whenitcame to proclaimingthebenefits of theObamaCareprogram, and thereforeitisnotexpectedthat he willrepeatit, although he has alreadysaidthat he expects to spend 20% of theincrease in publicspendingonhealth. Butif in theendtheSupremeCourt, with a vastmajority of conservativejudges, overthrowsObamaCare, itwillhave to do something to avoidleavingthemillions of Americanswhocurrentlybenefitfromitwithouthealthcare.

Butlet no onewait, because he has alreadydeniedit, a healthsystemliketheoneproposedby Sanders, of free and universal health. Those ideas are European, butveryfrownedupon and notwidelyacceptedacrossthepond.

Whoeverbelievesthat he isgoing to reverse Trump’sprotectionistmeasures in anabsolutewaymustwaitseated. Itwillgotowards a softprotectionism, wheremeasuressuch as thatthesteel to be used in publicworksmust be American, ortheshipsthattransportgoodsbetween American portsmustalso be Americanvessels, butsurelyitwillallyitselfwithitsallies. historical, theEuropeans to fightagainstthehegemony, especiallytechnological, of China. In theUnitedStates, thecurrentsuspiciontowardstheChineseisprevalent in 73% of Americans and itisnot to be expectedthat Biden wants to appear overnight as the American friend of theChinese, so thesanctionsagainstHuaweitheywillremain, at least in the short and mediumterm.

Itwillraisetaxes, but in a controlledmanner to only 1% of thepopulation, so therewill be no, perhapsnecessary, program to reduce the fiscal deficit. Theeconomicsituationdoesnotallow to attacktheproblemfromthatpoint, althoughit has announcedanincrease in businesstaxesthat has beenestimated in a reduction of approximately 12% of profits, a figure undoubtedlyimportant, butwhichseems be thatfinancialmarketshavealreadydiscounted.

Specialmentionshould be made of herballotcompanion, Kamala Harris, whoundoubtedly has a veryimportant role reserved in the Trump administration and whoiscalled to be, and perhapswithineightyears, thefirstwoman to sit in the Oval and notbecauseshewasvisitingit.

«Kamala Harris isdestinedfor a vital role in theadministration, amongotherthingsbecausesheisdestined to be thefirstwoman to sit in the Oval and becausesheisvisitingit.»

Harris, amongmanyotherthings, is a Senatorfor Cali-fornia and has alreadydemonstratedherfriendlytreatment of the Big Tech, most of whichhavetheirresidencethere, so itisnotexpectedthatany antitrust measureswill be takenagainstthem . And neitherisit to be expectedthatneither Harris nor Biden willtakeonthebigcompanies. Biden has been a Senatorfor 32 yearsfromthestate of Delaware, a statethatdespiteitssmallsizeaccountsfor 2/3 of the general quarters of thecompaniesthatmake up theFortune 500. And no onechangestheircustoms and practiceswhen he is 77 yearsold.

Nowitwill be theturn to seewhichtravelcompanions he chooses, if in theend, as everythingseems, he iselected as president. Despitewhatissaid, I findithard to believethatyouelectMrs. Elisabeth Warren either as Attorney General or as Secretary of theTreasury. Mrs. Warren has notbeencharacterizedbyherrestraint, butrathertheopposite. Being a moderate he willtend to lookformoderate and prestigious figures in histeam. Figures soundforthesecretary of thetreasury, so important at themoment, as thecurrentfinancial director of Google, Mr. Poratorthemember of the FED, Mr.Brainard.

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